According to geopolitics and foreign policy experts the next U.S. president will, contend with not only two wars in Europe and the Middle East, but also growing cooperation among autocratic powers as a disruptive force in the global order. Russia’s war effort, for example, is fueled by Chinese industrial support, Iranian military drones, and North Korean ammunition and ballistic missiles. This bloc has made gains from a breakdown and turmoil within countries like the USA who have been supportive of ‘rules-based international order’. Moreover, so-called swing or hinge states—South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, India, and others cannot be relied on to support the West. (South Africa, for example, was silent on Russia’s invasion and was reportedly selling arms to Moscow.) All of these actors will test a new administration, not with a direct challenge to the United States, but by testing the strength of U.S. commitments to allies and partners or developing nations.
While allies will no doubt, welcome any signs of continuity with Biden’s alliance-centric policies, there is a realisation that the U.S. domestic appetite for deep engagement is weak and that this will constrain a Harris presidency. A Trump Presidency, being more unpredictable with his cult-like followers and cohorts giving him carte Blanche to say and do what he likes. Trump, who blatantly plays fast and loose with democracy, nuclear threats, government structures and America as a whole, will no doubt treat foreign affairs with the same level of carelessness, satisfying his whims and ego.
U.S. allies and partners around the world will likely be preparing for change, and focusing on developing greater self-reliance in security affairs and greater regional integration with their own neighbors, uncertain of US backing or support. Trump’s promised punitive tariffs may be of some concern globally just as they should be on the domestic front but Harris is herself unlikely to lower tariff barriers making former trade relations less favourable.
Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine “on day one”, in view of his previous efforts to bully and blackmail the Ukrainian President, and his fascination with the Russian President is ominous and likely to be a great concern for Europe. At best, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations does not in-still confidence. At worst he seems to revel in offending heads of state, showing his ignorance and fanning his own ego. With Harris, the commitment to alliances will be far stronger but limited resources and the underlying public reluctance to get over involved will dictate to some degree, and greater self-reliance and burden-sharing by allies will be expected. On the other hand most, analysts have pointed out that till now despite the rhetoric, America’s broad foreign policies haven’t swung that drastically from one administration to the next.
Regarding American elections, It has for the longest time been taken for granted that a winner will be declared, the loser will graciously stand down, facilitate a smooth transition and the newly elected President will serve a term of four years in the White House, starting in the January of the next year. And this is almost certainly what we can reasonably expect as President Biden hands over office to either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. What is a little different though is that the American people know without a doubt that Donald Trump does not value ‘reason’, does not accept the concept of losing anything and will declare himself the winner even before the results are tallied. They also know that if he does win the election, he will refuse to leave office when his time comes. His track record of undermining the justice system and all other government departments, and his attempts to encourage foreign leaders to interfere in US elections and divisive antics, (despicable as they are), are no secret.
One of my big disappointments during the past 25 years has been my growing concern and disappointment with the Republican Party. The Republican Party being a party I understood to hold similar Christian values to myself. Initially I was just uncomfortable with the way they inflated issues and seemed so comfortable spreading harmful propaganda with seemingly little concern for the damage and division they caused. Now I am not saying they are the only politicians responsible for this kind of behaviour, but I expected more.
In recent years, unable to put a positive spin on Trump-era scandals and fiascos, Republican leaders and right wing extremists have honed the skill of simply reframing what has taken place in the last few years (from the 2020 election results and the horror of January 6th to their own legislative record) treating the recent past as if it never happened. Tragically, in my opinion, they have become masters of enticing people to join them in disregarding reality and making it what they want it to be.
The Democrats of course are just as scary with their woke agenda and efforts to rewrite science, natural law and foundational moral principles. The tragedy as I see it is that both parties represent the extremists on the right and the left leaving no party to represent the true core of Americans. The words of George Orwell in his classic, 1984 once again ring loud and clear: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…”
Perhaps it will be amiss for me to discuss ‘democratic elections’ here without addressing ‘the elephant in the room’, election rigging. Believe it or not it is not just despots in Africa who dream up ways to rig democratic elections - it is the purview of many political parties past and present to compete in such efforts. This is a fascinating study, with history telling the stories. American elections factor these antics in and at the end of the day the decision either way takes into consideration what parties accuse each other of and assessments are done in terms of what damage has been done and whether or not it had the potential to make any overall difference to the result.
One of the few things we can be sure of is that whatever the result, change is a given, yet so much will stay the same. It is also true that there is nothing new under the sun and in one way or another our ancestors have created and navigated similar situations for better or worse. Mostly the fact that God will still be God and His plan and purpose will be being worked out in and through us despite what we see as ‘curveballs’ and/or catastrophic events, we are to be anxious for nothing… Our job is to humble ourselves, pray, NOT PANIC, love God and love our neighbour as ourselves. Let’s keep praying for the people of America and a world that has benefited much from their efforts and experiences in building a relatively federal and democratic country.