The Implications of Donald Trump's Return to the White House

Written by Stefan van der Berg

What a campaign! What a result! From early next year, Donald Trump will return to the White House for another four years as the most powerful man on earth.

But now that we've had some time to process Trump's extraordinary and impressive resurrection, it's time to seriously consider some global implications that his return to the Oval Office will have.

During his first presidency, Trump's unpredictable and egotistical nature led to significant geopolitical implications.

This time around, with fewer constraints on his policy advisers and a greater sense of vindication, Trump is likely to be even more assertive in his decision-making.

The consequences of Trump's presidency will likely be far-reaching and profound as we clearly live in interesting times.

A Different Landscape

The world in 2024 is vastly different from when Trump first held office. Wars rage in Europe and the Middle East, and the global landscape is marked by uncertainty. Trump's return to power raises questions about how world leaders will work with him, given his haphazard approach to foreign policy.

NATO and European Security

Trump's criticism of NATO, America's oldest security alliance with Europe, during his first term has raised concerns about the future of the alliance. His threat to withdraw the US from NATO if member nations do not meet their defence spending obligations has sparked anxiety among European leaders. While it is unclear whether Trump will follow through on his threat, the volatility of his approach will undoubtedly have real effects on allied capitals.

Middle East and Ukraine

Trump's election has significant implications for the Middle East, as he has promised peace while vowing continued support for Israel's ongoing war in Gaza and Lebanon. This contradictory stance and his close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raise serious concerns about the effectiveness of peace efforts undertaken by him.

Palestinian and Lebanese civilians are bracing for more devastation once Donald Trump begins his second term as president. In Gaza, the occupied West Bank, and Lebanon, there are fears that the loyal ally of Israel will embolden its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and far-right coalition government to escalate regional conflicts and destroy any possibility of Palestinian self-determination.

Trump's questionable vow to end Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine on his first day in the job if he were elected is shrouded in uncertainty, with potential consequences for Ukraine's sovereignty and the global balance of power. A plan drawn up by two former members of Trump's National Security Council staff, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, proposes a ceasefire based on current frontlines on the battlefield, but it is unclear whether Trump will endorse this plan.

Asia and China

Trump's affinity for authoritarian leaders and his focus on the strategic competition with China may lead to a shift in US foreign policy priorities. This could have significant implications for the global economy and the balance of power in Asia. Trump has promised to implement an even more aggressive version of his "America First" vision, including a protectionist economic agenda that would raise tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression of 1929-1939.

Trump and Religious Freedom Globally

While Trump's administration generally had a strong stance in favour of religious freedom, his foreign policies were often pragmatic rather than overtly focused on the concerns of specific religious minorities. His "America First" approach and his support for religious liberty could signal both positive and challenging implications for persecuted Christians.

However, US foreign aid, which sometimes comes with human rights conditions, might not dramatically shift in response to Trump's priorities, especially if his administration prioritizes national interests over international human rights.

Practically, the impact of Trump's presidency could include increased opportunities for religious NGOs in the form of aid. However, the rise of nationalist and anti-immigrant rhetoric in some Western countries during his tenure could embolden local opposition to evangelical efforts, potentially increasing societal pressure or persecution.

The Fear of the Unknown

The greatest fear for many is that no one really knows what Trump 2.0 will bring. While the world did not end during his first presidency, advances were made by China, Russia, and North Korea. The prospect of metastasizing conflict in multiple regions is a terrifying one, with some even speculating about the possibility of World War III.

The Road Ahead

As Donald Trump prepares to take office for the second time, the world is left to wonder what the future holds. One thing is certain: the show will go on, and the world will be watching closely as Trump navigates the complexities of global politics.