NIGERIA: the complexities of a Christian community under threat

Written by Mike Burnard an Analytical Strategist at dia-LOGOS

On Friday, 31 October, President Donald Trump, in a message on social media, acknowledged the atrocities that Christians in Nigeria face daily, saying that “Radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter. I am hereby making Nigeria a “COUNTRY OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.”

This decision marks a significant policy signal, renewing international attention on the worsening human rights and religious freedom crisis in Nigeria — where extremist groups such as Boko Haram, ISWAP, and Fulani militants have continued to carry out devastating attacks on Christian communities, often with impunity.

Christian martyrdom in Nigeria remains a grave and ongoing crisis, and persecution has escalated dramatically in recent years, making Nigeria one of the deadliest places on earth for Christians to live.

But is it really as straightforward as the Trump administration portrays it to be? Or do the complexities of culture and faith, and the context of rivalries and revenge, get overshadowed by the emotional weight of Christian martyrdom and persecution?

INTRODUCTION

In the first seven months of 2025, Nigeria has witnessed the massacre of over 7,000 Christians and the burning of hundreds of churches, with more than 3 million people—mostly Christian farmers—being forcibly displaced from their homes due to religiously charged attacks.

Recent reports document disturbing acts committed by Fulani herdsmen, including the destruction of homes and churches, and the unlawful seizure of land and property belonging to Christian communities. These accounts paint a disturbing picture of targeted religious persecution.

But, while this perspective holds weight, it does not cover the full complexity of the crisis. Even though faith and religion are two major contributors to the violence, a broader view reveals that the conflict is also deeply rooted in historical tensions, worsened by environmental challenges, tribal rivalries, and socio-political instability. Shrinking resources, desertification, and erratic climate patterns intensify the struggle between nomadic herders and settled farmers. These pressures have forced Fulani herders southward into regions already inhabited by farming communities, sparking violent competition over land and water.

This volatile dynamic is further shaped by an African worldview centered on fear and power, where tribal dominance and spiritual security often override ideological or religious convictions. Within this framework, violence becomes a means of asserting control and survival, from both Christian, Muslim, and Anamist

Ultimately, the crisis defies simple explanations. It demands a contextual, multi-dimensional understanding for those seeking lasting peace and meaningful solutions. Only by addressing the intertwined religious, environmental, and cultural factors can progress be made toward reconciliation and stability.

Here are five key facts that all Christians should consider regarding the conflict in Nigeria.

Who are the roleplayers in the conflict?
What’s at the root of the crisis?
How many have died?
What role do Christian farmers play in the conflict?
Is there a religious element, or is this simply a “farmer-herder” conflict?

1. WHO ARE THE ROLEPLAYERS IN THE CONFLICT?

Nigeria’s population in 2025 is estimated at approximately 237.5 million, making it the 6th most populous country in the world and the most populous in Africa. It accounts for nearly 15% of the continent’s total population. The country has a youthful population with a median age of 18.1 years

Nigeria’s religious demographics are roughly split between Islam and Christianity, with Islam slightly more dominant, especially in the northern regions. Indigenous religions still exist but have significantly declined.

Major Religions in Nigeria (2025 Estimate)

Islam: 50–55% of the population
- Predominantly practiced in the northern regions
- Includes Sunni and Shia branches, with Sunni being the majority
Christianity: 35–45% of the population
- Dominant in the southern and central regions
- Includes Catholic, Anglican, Pentecostal, and other denominations
Indigenous Religions: Less than 5%

The two major role players in the current crisis in Nigeria are the Muslim Fulani people and the Christian Bachama farmers

THE MUSLIM FULANI PEOPLE

The Fulani herdsmen, a primarily Muslim people-group of West Africa, are the largest nomadic group in the world with an estimated population of over 38 million people who account for around 90 per cent of herders. They live mainly in Nigeria, Mali, Guinea, Cameroon, Senegal, and Niger.

Nigeria hosts the largest Fulani population, with over 15 million people, making up about 6.6% of the national population.

The Fulani are predominantly Muslim, having embraced Islam centuries ago through trade and scholarship. They played a major role in the spread of Islam in West Africa, especially during the Sokoto Caliphate era led by Usman dan Fodio in the early 19th century.

The Fulani people are regarded as an unreached people group with less than 0.35% being Christian and 1 Christian worker for every 63,000 people.

THE CHRISTIAN BACHAMA FARMERS

Christian Bachama farmers are members of the Bachama ethnic group in Nigeria, predominantly Christian, who engage in agriculture and have been involved in violent clashes with Fulani herders over land and resources. Most Bachama people are Christian, a result of missionary activity dating back to the colonial era.

They are traditionally subsistence farmers, cultivating crops like millet, maize, sorghum, and groundnuts. Farming is central to their economy and cultural identity.

2. WHAT’S AT THE ROOT OF THE CRISIS?

What’s at the root of the conflict between Muslim Fulani herders and Christian Bachama farmers is as complex as it is multi-dimensional, and the answers would vary depending on who is asked. The crisis is generally blamed on the Islamic/ Christian divide and consequently points to Christian persecution. But factors like the National Leadership, the herder-farmer, nomad-settler conflicts, tribal differences, the desertification of land, and the never-ending cycle of retaliation all play major roles in this escalating crisis.

Firstly, it is important to understand the “power/ fear” worldview of the African mindset. This worldview even overpowers religious and faith convictions. Western democracies are based on a worldview that discerns between right and wrong, while African politics focus on tribal dominance that will always empower one tribe at the cost of another in terms of national or regional power.

In this regard, the power distribution in an African nation will contribute to both the confidence and the fears of the people, depending on which side of the fence you stand. Even though only 6.6% of all Nigerians belong to the Fulani tribe, the political power is firmly controlled by the Fulani Muslim people.

The current President of Nigeria is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He assumed office on May 29, 2023. And even though President Tinubu is not Fulani, his presidency marks a continuation of APC leadership following Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure.

Muhammadu Buhari was born to a Fulani family in Daura, Katsina State, where his father, Hardo Adamu, was a Fulani chief. Feeding off and fuelling the northern Muslim desire for a northern Muslim president, Buhari continuously warned that violence would erupt and blood would flow if he was denied the presidency. Christian fears escalated, especially through the Muslim-dominated North and volatile Middle Belt. This platform of political power highly complicated the very volatile situation.

Secondly, competing claims to land and other resources play a further role in complicating relationships. According to the American Security Project, 75% of the grassland in northern Nigeria is now desertified, which has reconfigured the geography and landscape of Nigeria entirely. In the north-east, the number of rain days has dropped by over 50%, while erratic rainfall and temperatures have increased in the north-west. Abnormal weather patterns and desert encroachment are resulting in ecological and economic destabilization within the semi-arid region of northern Nigeria, particularly impacting the livestock and farming sectors.

Changing precipitation patterns are reducing crop yields for farmers and disrupting water supplies for herdsmen, significantly altering traditional practices and leaving many farms and villages abandoned. Nomadic Fulani herdsmen are in constant search for water holes and rangeland for their cattle. Due to land scarcity, herders are permanently relocating to areas that are already inhabited by farmers in southern Nigeria. Fulani herdsmen and Bachama farmers must now compete over scarce fertile land, furthering tension and violence between the two groups. Herdsmen and farmers are resorting to violence to maintain their livelihoods.

Thirdly, Nigeria already has a north-south, Muslim-Christian divide. Therefore, the conflict is advancing pre-existing religious tensions. The Fulani herders, who are predominantly Muslim, are migrating to the Middle Belt Region, where Christian Bachama farmers generally live.

Anietie Ewang, a researcher with Human Rights Watch based in Nigeria, told Christian Post that the presence of Boko Haram in the northeast and bandits in the northwest are further driving the Fulani herders to the Middle Belt. “While conflicts such as this are not new to the Middle Belt because they have always had nomadic communities that come around, you also see a situation where it is increased and leading to more violence and an unusual number of deaths than we have seen in the past,” she explained.

In the Religious Prayer Bulletin, Elizabeth Kendal explored the reality that the Fulani are often used as proxies for an Islamic Jihad.

“While the Bible mandates Christians spread the Good News that God reconciles sinners to himself through Jesus Christ,” Kendal said, “… Islam mandates Muslims expand the territory under Allah’s rule (i.e., under Islamic Sharia Law — a political mandate). Forced out by the ever-encroaching desert, the traditionally nomadic Fulani cattle herders migrate south in search of food and water for their livestock. These Fulani are then exploited by jihadists and other Islamists — including those in the military and in the government — who use them as proxies in an Islamic jihad to expand Muslim territory at the expense of Christians. This is why they routinely attack with high-powered automatic weapons and wear bulletproof vests and military fatigues. It is also why they are virtually never caught.”

There is no doubt that Christians have suffered severely under these attacks, and for that the Church should intervene and pray, but it is also important to place these attacks in the context of the bigger picture and within the Biblical understanding of “being persecuted for righteousness’ sake.”

3. HOW MANY HAVE DIED?

Detailed reports according to the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), Open Doors, and International Christian Concern provide the following breakdown of the current situation:

7,087 Christians were killed in the first seven months of 2025,
averaging 30 martyrs per day.
7,800 Christians were abducted during the same period, often by jihadist groups like Boko Haram and Fulani militants.
Between August 10 and October 26, 2025, an additional 100 Christians were killed and 120 abducted.
Human rights organizations like Open Doors have consistently ranked Nigeria as one of the most dangerous countries for Christians, noting that more Christians are killed in Nigeria than in the rest of the world combined.

Although estimates have varied and numbers are contradicting, one thing is certain about the Fulani-farmer conflict in Nigeria: there was a noticeable spike in the number of killings of Christians from 2019 onwards.

In the four-year period between 2019 and 2023, Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORF) registered 55,910 deaths and 21,621 abductions in Nigeria, across 11,610 attacks. This indicates a high level of violence and insecurity.

Many civilians across parts of Nigeria faced insecurity and fear of the unexpected. For example, eyewitnesses talked about children sleeping in trees at night as a form of protection.

In total, 30,880 civilians were killed in 6,942 attacks. For context, there were 9,970 attacks with killings in total. 21,532 civilians were abducted in 2,670 attacks. The remaining 25,030 people killed were members of the Security Forces or Terror Groups. The remaining 89 people abducted were members of the Security Forces or Terror Groups.

16,769 Christians were killed,
and 6,225 Muslims were killed in these attacks

This gives a sense of the scale of the violence and the considerable risk to Nigerian civilians.

But numbers should not determine our care nor our compassion. If it were one Christian who died through the violent acts of others, the Church should share the same display of compassion as for 16,000.

4. WHAT ROLE DO CHRISTIAN FARMERS PLAY IN THE CONFLICT?

While much of what is reported internationally focuses on the atrocities committed by Fulani people against farming communities, attacks against Fulani herding communities have regrettably but understandably also occurred.

As outlined in an extensive research report derived from over 262 interviews by Amnesty International chronicling attacks on both Fulani and farming communities, attacks against Fulani communities can be as horrifying and deadly as attacks committed against the Christian farming communities.

But as Christian human rights groups have argued, there are disproportionately more attacks against farming communities than there are against Fulani communities.

5. IS THERE A RELIGIOUS ELEMENT, OR IS THIS SIMPLY A “FARMER-HERDER” CONFLICT?

For many Africans, the local tribe is a prime source of identity. Not only do tribal alliances determine customs, lifestyle, culture, dress, language, and food, but they also determine religion. It is more a matter of “who you are” than “what you believe”. The Fulanis are Muslim by tribe, and the Bachama are Christian by tribe. This web of tribal alliances, therefore, makes it impossible to focus on one component of tribal life only when it comes to interaction with other tribes.

It has been calculated that there are over 800 different tribal and linguistic groups across Nigeria. A recent book by the journalist Rima Shawulu Kwewum, for instance, calculates that Bauchi State — the seventh largest of Nigeria’s 37 states–– has ninety ethnic groups and nationalities, while Adamawa and Taraba States have over a hundred.

Gatestone Institute writes that “Nowhere is tribal attachment stronger than in the polyglot southern areas of Northern Nigeria – the ‘Middle Belt’ of the country, which was first tentatively claimed as a separate collective entity as long ago as the 1930s. Comprising mainly Christian and Traditional African tribes, ‘Middle Belters’ — who are found indigenous in even the most northerly Sharia states of Borno, Yobe and Kebbi — have increasingly asserted their ethnic distinctiveness, and rejected northern Fulani/Hausa hegemony with its second-class dhimmi status for non-Muslims.”

However, the role of religious influences as a major component of tribal life cannot be underestimated and should not be ignored.

Open Doors researcher Yonas Dembele reported that the pattern of Fulani violence in the region — their use of military-grade weapons to drive Christians off the land and to occupy it; the destruction of Christian homes and churches; and their call for the imposition of Islamic law, among other hallmarks — amounts to ethnic cleansing of the Middle Belt. The campaign, he argues, is animated by the same ambition that drives Boko Haram: To bring the non-Islamic world under Islamic rule.

There is no doubt that religion continues to add substance to a highly volatile situation and a severely polarised community. There is also no doubt that religion is not the only factor contributing to the acts of violence. It is therefore paramount that when the Church reports on these matters, it needs to take all factors into consideration and not simply take one component and pursue it with a Christian agenda

CONCLUSION

We have a mandate to pray for our brothers and sisters who suffer under the yoke of persecution in Nigeria, and our hearts bleed for those who have suffered immeasurable hardships. We do this in our Churches, in our meetings, and in our fellowship. We weep before the Lord as we remember that if one member suffers, we all suffer with it (1 Chronicles 12:26)

This is non-negotiable

However, in public, and especially on social media, we are reminded of Proverbs 31:8-9 that encourages us to “Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves, for the rights of ALL who are destitute (Fulani and Bachama). To speak up and judge fairly; to defend the rights of the poor and needy.”

We also have a mandate to pray for the lost and the unreached, and in the words of Christ Himself, for those who persecute “us” (Matthew 5:44). We should guard our hearts not to demonise people and stir up hatred and fear, regardless of their acts. As Christians, we should move into the next realm of a Christ-consciousness. We need to be more zealous about the injustice in the Middle Belt of Nigeria than simply focusing on the persecution of Christians only. By simply emphasising one group as victim and another group as aggressor, the Church unfortunately contributes to the polarisation of the community.

Where injustice prevails, Christians should speak up, regardless of tribe, race, religion, or nationality. We serve a God who is not only concerned about Christians who are persecuted but also bout justice as a principle. He is a God of justice who seeks justice for all. That is ultimately the message of the cross.