By Andrew Richards – Institute for Strategic Foresight: arichards.isf@gmail.com
On 8 November 2022 Xi Jinping, the President of China, announced that China would henceforth comprehensively strengthen its military training and effectively prepare for war. Xi was quoted saying that the reason behind the mobilisation was because of China’s increasingly unstable and uncertain security. China, known for its war rhetoric, is moving at a pace that has placed even the US Strategic Command (USSC) on alert, with Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the USSC, warning that China has been developing nuclear weapons much faster than the US. He summed up his waring to the Pentagon by comparing the US military to a sinking ship, saying “as I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking. It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are.”
China’s military build-up is nothing new, being the first country after the Cold War, in the late 2000’s, to build new military bases in the Asia-Pacific. Effectively placing the region and other world powers on notice. According to US intelligence, China has fully militarised at least three Islands within the disputed South China Seas, armed with everything from anti-ship and aircraft missile systems to advanced laser technology. US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John C Aquilino said that the Chinese military build-up is the largest since World War two. Ultimately, China’s militarisation of islands across the South Shina Seas is seen as an expansion of their offensive capabilities beyond their shores. This means that China now has the ability to dominate the region using its military ability. Traditionally, China has applied diplomatic and economic pressure on countries that share the South China Seas waters, yet because of its vast Naval presence in the region, China has tried, and succeeded, in pushing its agenda without much pushback. The US, Canadian, UK and Australian Navies have tried to assert freedom of navigation in the region and have tried building diplomatic relations with those countries being bullied by China. The goal, to build a reliable bulwark against Chinese aggression, has to date not delivered the support needed in successfully countering China.
China’s military build-up has always been, and continues to be, in clear view of the West, with world powers all asking the same “what-if” China questions. What if China attacks Taiwan? What if China supports Russia in its war against Ukraine? What if China is able to build an alliance of nations in the Asia-Pacific that could challenge the US-led hegemony? These questions are even more relevant considering China’s protective role over North Korea, an armed nuclear state threatening South Korea, Japan, and other US interests throughout the Pacific. North Korea has fired more than 40 ballistic and cruise missiles, so far this year – the highest number since 2011. Would China defend North Korea and threaten the West with its own nuclear arsenal of up to 350 warheads?
These “what-if” questions should also be asked by the church. If China attacks Taiwan and the West reacts in support of the Island state, how will it impact the church?
The China question is not only a military one, but even more so an economic one. Manufacturing in China accounts for up to 30% of the world market, up from 22% in 2012. 30% might not sound that much but it has helped China play a long game of political subversion against the West. The war in Ukraine is a good example of how the West respond to oppression. By imposing largescale sanctions against Russia and its elite, the West aims to choke the Russian economy, ultimately offering the Russian State a choice between fighting a war abroad or fighting a war at home as sanctions starts touching ordinary Russians that could eventually oppose the State. This strategy, that has been the most prevalent amongst Western nations, will not be an easy sell against China. Too much of the West is reliant on Chinese manufacturing for sanctions against the communist regime not to affect those countries imposing the sanctions. China’s global economic hold is also what emboldens it to push its military expansion without fear from the West.
THE CHURCH
In whatever way the West decides to answer the China question, especially in relation to a possible future war, the church will be affected in two ways.
Firstly, the mission of the church, to preach the gospel to the lost, will face a challenge.
Secondly, war will open up opportunities for the church that will help fulfil its mission of sharing the gospel with the lost. This sound similar but are separated by the response of the church. If the church recognises the opportunities presented by war, then it’s mission will see fruit. If the church seeks its own safety, then the harvest will rot.
In order to illustrate the impact war will have on the mission of the church, it is necessary to use an almost doomsday scenario as example. If China attacks Taiwan, and the US and it’s coalition responds on the side of Taiwan, North Korea will likely make use of the chaos to launch a strike on South Korea. This will divide the US alliance between helping defend Taiwan and South Korea. China would likely come to North Korea’s aid in helping it fight the US alliance on the Korean peninsula. To simplify the impact of such a war on the mission of the church, we need to consider the potential loss. The combined populations of China, Taiwan, North and South Korea is 1.5 billion. Taking Christian percentages per country into consideration, the estimated number of people that are not Christian is 1.3 billion. A non-nuclear scenario would likely see hundreds of thousand killed within the first year, with a nuclear scenario causing the deaths of millions. Considering the number of people who would enter eternity without Christ, the church faces a challenge.
The possibility of a future war involving China should be on every church agenda. Displacement as a result of armed conflicts could see the church in East Asia grow – if the church is prepared and willing to respond. If the war in Syria, that has to date caused the deaths of more than 600 000 people, caused more than 13 million to become displaced either as refugees or internally displaced, then a war involving China, as described above, will likely see tens of millions displaced. And it is here where the church will see its finest hour, when it responds with the gospel.
For the church in the West the challenge, and opportunity lies in supporting the church in East Asia today, so it can be prepared for whatever scenario might shape the future.