OVERVIEW

Between 2010 and 2020, religious affiliation declined by at least 5 percentage points in 35 countries according to a recent Pew Research Center study.[1]  It dropped considerably more in countries such as Australia (17%), Chile (17%), Uruguay (16%) and the United States (13%).

This trend reflects a broader global phenomenon known as the secular transition—a gradual, generational shift away from organized religion.

THE SECULAR TRANSITION MODEL

A team of scholars—including Conrad Hackett (Pew Research Center), Jörg Stolz and Jean-Philippe Antonietti (University of Lausanne), and Nan Dirk de Graaf (University of Oxford)—propose a three-stage model of religious decline, published in Nature Communications. They call it the Participation–Importance–Belonging (P-I-B) sequence, which unfolds as follows:

1. Participation: People attend religious services less frequently.
2. Importance: Religion becomes less central to personal identity and decision-making.
3. Belonging: Fewer people identify with any religious tradition at all.

This sequence reflects how people first shed time-intensive practices, then internal significance, and finally formal affiliation.

STAGES OF DECLINE ACROSS THE GLOBE

The P-I-B sequence traditionally happens in three stages:

1. Early Stage – Decline in Participation Only

In the early stage of secular transition, generations differ primarily in their religious participation. In some countries that remain highly religious today, recent surveys show that each country’s share of adults under age 40 who frequently attend religious services has dropped below the share of older adults who do so.

• Seen in many African and South Asian countries.
• Example: In Senegal, 78% of older adults attend weekly worship, but younger adults are 14% less likely to do so.
• Despite reduced participation, religious identity and importance remain high across generations.

2. Medium Stage – Decline in Participation, Importance, and Belonging

In the medium stage of secular transition, generations differ in their religious participation, importance and belonging. In countries that are moderately religious, all three steps in the P-I-B sequence are visible in recent surveys. Adults under 40 attend services less frequently than their elders, are less likely to say religion is important in their lives and are less likely to identify with any religion.

• Found in moderately religious societies like the U.S., Chile, and parts of Asia.
• Younger adults attend less, value religion less, and increasingly disaffiliate.
• Reflects a more comprehensive erosion of religious life.

3. Late Stage – Decline Primarily in Belonging

In the late stage of secular transition, generations differ primarily in religious belonging. The authors contend that this is because the first two steps have been completed. The shares of older adults who attend services and who consider religion important in their lives have already dropped to low levels, similar to those of younger adults. In the least religious countries today, the main difference between age groups is that younger adults are less likely to identify with any religion.

• Common in Western Europe.
• Example: In Denmark, 79% of older adults are religiously affiliated, but adults under 40 are 26 points less likely to say they belong to any religion
• Attendance and importance are already low across all age groups; the main shift is in identity.

EXCEPTIONS AND COMPLEXITIES

Not All Countries Follow the Pattern

• Post-Communist Eastern Europe (e.g., Russia, Moldova, Georgia): Religious revival due to nationalist movements after Soviet suppression.
• Israel: Unique case where younger generations (Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox) are as religious—or more so—than older secular Jews.

Religious Background Matters

• Countries in medium/late stages tend to be Christian- or Buddhist-majority.
• Muslim-majority countries and Hindu-majority India are mostly in the early stage, with uncertain trajectories.

Secular Transition Is Not Inevitable

• Timing and cultural context vary widely.
• Some societies may stall or reverse the trend due to political, spiritual, or social factors.

IMPLICATIONS FOR FAITH AND MINISTRY

This research offers a sobering but clarifying lens for those engaged in faith-based work. It suggests that:

1. Religious identity is more resilient than practice—but not immune to generational shifts

Religious identity often lingers long after active participation fades. People may stop attending services or praying regularly, yet still claim affiliation with a faith tradition. This resilience is partly cultural—religion as heritage, not just belief. But it’s also psychological: identity is sticky, especially when tied to family, ethnicity, or community memory.

However, generational shifts eventually erode even this. As younger cohorts grow up in environments where religion is less visible, less valued, or even contested, identity itself begins to loosen. It’s like a tree whose roots remain after the leaves fall—but over time, even the roots decay if not nourished.

For ministry, this means we can’t assume that nominal affiliation equals spiritual engagement. The challenge is to re-root identity in lived experience, not just inherited labels.

2. Cultural and political forces can either accelerate or resist secularization

Secularization isn’t a purely organic process—it’s shaped by the soil it grows in. In some contexts, liberal democracies, consumer culture, and individualism hasten the decline of religion. In others, authoritarian regimes, nationalist movements, or post-conflict rebuilding may re-sacralize public life.

For example:

• In post-Soviet states, religion resurged as a symbol of national identity and resistance.
• In Western Europe, secularization accelerated alongside welfare expansion and pluralism.
• In parts of Africa, religion remains robust, often intertwined with communal life, resistance to colonial legacies, and moral frameworks for justice.

This means faith leaders must read the cultural moment carefully. Are we in a season of erosion or resurgence? Is religion being privatized, politicized, or reimagined?

3. Youth engagement must go beyond attendance metrics to address deeper questions of meaning and belonging

Counting heads in pews misses the point. Young people today are asking:

• What does this faith say about injustice?
• Is there room for my doubts, my story, my culture?
• Does this community offer belonging without performance?

They’re not just seeking rituals—they’re seeking resonance. A theology that speaks to climate grief, racial trauma, mental health, and digital alienation. A church that feels like home, not a lecture hall.

So engagement must be holistic: storytelling, lament, art, activism, and radical hospitality. It’s not about getting youth “back to church”—it’s about helping them encounter the sacred in ways that feel real.

4. Revival movements may emerge in unexpected places, often tied to national identity or post-trauma reconstruction

Revival isn’t always a return to orthodoxy—it can be a reimagining of faith in response to crisis. After war, oppression, or cultural upheaval, people often turn to religion not just for comfort, but for meaning-making and moral clarity.

Examples:

• In Rwanda, post-genocide reconciliation efforts were deeply spiritual.
• In South Korea, rapid modernization sparked explosive church growth.
• In Indigenous communities, spiritual revival often blends ancestral wisdom with Christian hope.

These movements are unpredictable, often messy, and deeply contextual. They remind us that the Spirit moves through ruins as well as cathedrals. And they challenge us to listen for revival not just in numbers, but in stories of healing, resistance, and rebirth.